Brexit vote all about political scrap over Heathrow growth, says media

The implications of Brexit on the prospects of Heathrow Airport being given the go-ahead for a third runway were analysed in considerable depth by the media.

THE BREXIT vote in the referendum on 23 June, in terms of its transport-related media coverage, appears to have been almost all about the expansion (or otherwise) of Heathrow Airport.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) issued a statement within hours of the referendum result being known, which stated that: “Preliminary estimates suggest that the number of UK air passengers could be 3-5% lower by 2020, driven by the expected downturn in economic activity and the fall in the sterling exchange rate.”

Which analysis, if correct, would tend to suggest that the need for additional airport capacity in the South-East of England is not quite as urgent as many had suggested prior to the referendum. Most of the media analysis, however, focused heavily on the political reasons why Heathrow (or possibly Gatwick) may or may not be given permission to build additional runway capacity, rather than the economic ones.

“David Cameron’s resignation and widespread predictions that Boris Johnson will be the next Prime Minister have seriously dented the airport’s [Heathrow’s] hopes of a third runway,” the Get West London news website suggested on 24 June.

The BBC’s transport correspondent, Richard Westcott, had come to a similar conclusion, well in advance of Johnson ruling himself out of contention to be our next Prime Minister. “The West London airport was favourite to be picked as the site for a new runway,” he said. “But that was when David Cameron was in charge. Boris Johnson has promised to lie down in front of bulldozers to stop expansion.

“Also vulnerable, though much further along in terms of process, is the promised investment in high-speed rail (HS2),” Westcott added.

Joe Murphy, political editor at London’s Evening Standard, however, suggested that Cameron’s resignation immediately after the referendum meant that Heathrow’s third runway as “dead in the water”, even though Cameron will remain in post until a new Prime Minister is chosen, meaning that he could, as Calder had noted, potentially give the go-ahead for Heathrow expansion as one of his last acts in power.

The BBC’s Westcott then returned to the debate in the wake of Boris Johnson’s decision not to run for Prime Minister. “Theresa May and Michael Gove both have constituencies near Heathrow and they’ve both had to deal with a lot of noise complaints,” he said. “but neither of them has ever come out against building a third runway at the airport and it’s not clear what they think now. And all that’s assuming that one of them becomes leader.”

The Independent’s Simon Calder, on 2 July, moved away from the political aspects of the debate to discuss the economic ones. “The unspoken assumption in the forecasts [of Howard Davies’ Airports Commission report] was that the UK would remain a member of the EU, with all the benefits that brings in terms of aviation,” he began. “But now that we are to leave the EU it is perfectly reasonable to question the validity of those forecasts. If, as some suggest, big business moves out of London and the economy is badly hit, Heathrow could see a drop in demand by passengers… but it is still difficult to argue that London does not need extra capacity.

“The capital has the busiest single-runway airport (Gatwick) and two-runway airport (Heathrow) in the world, by some distance,” Calder added, explaining his previously somewhat contradictory statement. “Gatwick has some room to grow but any slot that becomes available at Heathrow is hungrily snapped up and, furthermore, if the UK is going into a recession, a privately-financed project creating jobs and bring in billions of pounds in investment may be all the more prized. So expect an announcement within about a month of the new Prime Minister taking over.”

On 1 July, meanwhile, The Times’ business editor, Aistair Osborne, asked the rhetorical question: “Have Britain’s business lobby groups gone mad?” “How else to explain the rush of press releases yesterday urging the Government to get a move on and build a third runway at Heathrow?” he added. “Well, hello. What government is that exactly? The one that doesn’t exist, what with its main protagonists being too busy trying to kill each other.

“The personalities barely matter,” Osborne added. “No government in half a century has had the guts to build that extra Heathrow runway. What makes anyone think it will be different this time?

“Heathrow won’t happen,” he concluded. “Heathrow’s runway plan is ruinously expensive... [and] Heathrow already breaches EU air quality limits, assuming they still count, and yet it’s inviting everyone to believe it can raise passengers by 25 million to 100 million a year by 2030 without increasing aircraft or car pollution. How will it do that? Ban cars from the M4 and M25? Force everyone to come by packed public transport?”