Aviation and transport growth means 3% temperature rise

Unless nations redouble efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions the world is on course for a temperature rise of 2.6-3.1°C this century, warns a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Such an increase would have debilitating impacts on people, the planet, and global economies, it says.

The Emissions Gap Report for 2024 has been published ahead of the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are due for submission in early 2025 ahead of COP30 taking place in Azerbaijan in November.

The report indicates that cuts of 42% are needed by 2030 and 57% by 2035 to remain on track for limiting global warming to 1.5°C (as set in the Paris Agreement on climate change at COP21 in 2015).

There is the potential for significant reductions in emissions within the transport sector, according to the report. Changes in the transport sector could lead to a reduction of emissions by 36% in 2030 and 53% in 2035 compared with current policy projections.

UNEP says that big reductions could also be achieved in shipping and aviation.

In the passenger transport sector, measures that could bring down emissions include support to bring down the purchase price of electric vehicles, which would support access for low- and middle-income households, the report says.  There should also be “targeted measures” supporting non-motorized and public transport, such as “the revision of public road space allocation between modes and speed limits to increase safety and favour the more efficient mobility choices”.

UNEP points out that in 2023 the power sector (i.e. electricity production) continued to be the largest global contributor to emissions at 15.1 GtCO2e, followed by transport (8.4 GtCO2e), agriculture (6.5 GtCO2e) and industry (6.5 GtCO2e) (figure ES.1). Emissions from international aviation, which dropped significantly during the Covid-19 pandemic, showed the highest growth at 19.5% in 2023 from 2022 levels (compared with an average annual growth of 3.1% from 2010 to 2019) “clearly indicating a near bounce-back to pre-Covid-19 levels”.

Martina Juvara, Director at URBAN Silence, said the Emissions Gap report offers no surprises for climate specialists. “Developed nations are quickly exhausting their carbon budgets, and the world is on track for an average global warming of 3°C,” she told LTT. “This means that, before long, the cost of managing the consequences of climate-related crises – such as extreme heat, floods, and food shortages – will outweigh the cost of making the essential changes needed to prevent them.”

The distractions of budget cuts, the cost-of-living crisis, and international conflicts, are all taking away attention from a more noticeably changing climate even in the UK, she observed.

But with COP29 set to begin on 11 November, there is a “critical opportunity” for global action, said Juvara. “Regardless of political tensions, nations should unite to strengthen their commitments, particularly in transitioning away from fossil fuels as agreed a year ago. This may also require acknowledging that no country can claim a right to economic growth if that endangers climate stability for all.

“Additionally, this COP may mark a turning point for cities, pushing them to adopt more ambitious, urgent measures as part of the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions due in 2025. In the UK, the spotlight will be on transportation decarbonisation, the Green Belt's role in supporting water and climate management, and the push for widespread urban retrofitting – change that we can only hope comes swiftly and decisively.”

Emissions Gap Report 2024