The reality is that the ZEV Mandate is working

ECIU's Colin Walker responds to government plans a consultation on EV sales targets policy

Flexibilities built into the Zero Emission vehicle (ZEV) Mandate which the car industry lobbied for, including credit for low-emitting petrol cars, mean that many manufacturers such as BMW, Mercedes, Toyota and Hyundai are on course to meet, or even exceed, their obligations in 2024.

The ZEV Mandate’s headline EV sales target for 2024 is 22%, but this is not the target that the car industry needs to hit to be compliant with the regulation. The production of comparatively large numbers of low CO2 emitting petrol and diesel cars generates credits that can be transferred to the ZEV Mandate – with the effect of lowering the percentage target that manufacturers have to hit. New Automotive has calculated that this means the sales target that the whole industry needs to hit for 2024 is 18.1%, not 22%.

The question for those who are struggling has to be, if others can do it why can’t you?

The reality is that the mandate, conceived and implemented by the previous government is working, manufacturers are competing to hit targets, driving down prices for consumers. As prices come down, sales are going up – 14% higher in 2024 so far than they were at this stage in 2023.

If the ZEV Mandate was weakened, prices could well be higher for drivers, and this in turn could slow the growth of the second-hand EV market, leaving millions of households stuck driving dirtier and more expensive petrol and diesel cars for longer.

It would create regulatory uncertainty, with investors already warning it could delay charging infrastructure projects and undermine the transition to building the EVs that our major export markets increasingly demand.

Slowing this transition could have dire consequences, with a recent report by CBI Economics estimating that economic output could fall by as much as 73%, with over 400,000 jobs being lost.

Colin Walker is head of transport at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), non-profit organisation that supports informed debate on energy and climate change issues in the UK