Put the maths aside, we need to get back to basics

In the last issue we covered a new report by Yaron Hollander, a former Transport for London modelling manager, looking at ten misuses of transport models. This is one of a selection of responses from within the modelling community

I agree with many of Yaron Hollander’s observations.  As someone who reviews demand modelling and forecasting reports from around the world on a monthly basis I think we’ve become lost in mathematical nonsense (I nearly wrote “mathematical sophistication”, but commonly it is simply nonsense).  

At one end of the scale I come across regression equations ‘estimated’ from the flimsiest of data where fundamental model assumptions are violated,...

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