Ethics and advocacy in forecasting* revisited – consultants in the dock

High-profile, big-ticket lawsuits centred on over-optimistic demand projections for toll roads are underway in Australia and the US. Forecast auditor – and expert witness – Robert Bain highlights important lessons for practitioners

Rob Bain

04 September 2015

Robert Bain

Chart 3: Airport Link, Brisbane

Table 1: Selected Toll Road-Related Lawsuits (September 2015)

Chart 2: CLEM7, Brisbane

Chart 1: Lane Cove Tunnel, Sydney

Chart 4: Foley Beach Express, Alabama

As an engineer and ex-traffic forecaster currently retained by the prosecution in a number of international lawsuits I am not at liberty to discuss case specifics. Detailed legal matters or the merits of individual actions are not my primary concern anyhow. Having now been involved in five forecasting-related cases in several different governing jurisdictions, however, it is obvious from legal argument and opinion that there are important lessons here, not only for those who prepare demand...