DfT forecast that trips by all non-car modes to decline by 2040 sparks row

The DfT has predicted that fewer journeys will be made by train, bus, foot or bicycle over the next 25 years, Labour says.

The shadow transport secretary seized on the figures released by the Department of forecasts that showed bus trips falling by a quarter and cycle journeys declining compared to today. In an article declaring that "congestion ahead as commuters get back in their cars," Lilian Greenwood told The Times: "Ministers claim that they will double cycling journeys by 2025 but their own projections predict that cycling will tail off."

She had asked ministers to reveal whether it had updated its National Transport Model to estimate future annual trips by mode per person and the average length of trips by mode. Andrew Jones, transport minister, said the Department had set out its forecasts of road traffic but not the accompanying forecasts for other modes. As he made the predictions available, he stressed that they were produced "solely for the purpose of forecasting traffic".

They show an average number of bus trips of 64.8 by 2040 compared to 84.9 in 2015 and rail trips also slightly declining. The predictions are under 'scenario 1' of its road traffic forecast made last year and show the distances travelled by bus and rail still increasing over the same period. The DfT stressed that the figures do not account for its Cycling and Walking Investment Strategy, which was still in development when the estimates were made.

Tom Van Vuren suggested in Transportxtra that making the National Transport Model available to all could "hinder" debate.