50% of cars sold in UK by 2041 will be fully autonomous, predicts research for Kia Motors

Fully autonomous cars will account for half of all car sales in 25 years time, a study conducted by the Centre for Future Studies for Kia Motors (UK) suggests. Transformation: The future of driving to 2041 also predicts that by 2020 eight million connected cars on UK roads able communicate with each other and the surrounding infrastructure.

The Centre for Future Studies (CFS) looked at new technologies, the role of connectivity in cars of the future and wider infrastructure and regulation. The CFS is a Cambridge-based strategic futures consultancy enabling organisations to anticipate and manage change in their external environment.

The report’s author, Dr. Frank Shaw, says there will be some practical benefits from the spread of autonomous vehicles. “With level four autonomy – cars that are completely self-driving with no need for human input at all – parking fines will be almost eliminated as cars will be able to drop off their passengers before finding a suitable space, whilst insurance premiums for road traffic accidents are likely to be almost obsolete with cars able to avoid collisions through communication with each other,” he said.

“With cars able to transport themselves between locations there is also likely to be an increase in car-sharing – bringing down the costs and emissions associated with owning a car. The driving test process will be drastically overhauled – drivers will still need a license for partially autonomous cars, but fully self-driving vehicles will allow those who are unable to drive for reasons such as disability a freedom previously denied to them as no human intervention will be required.

However, Dr. Shaw also foresees the need for a major overhaul of the infrastructure designed to accommodate a mixture of autonomous cars, connected cars and traditional vehicles. The report predicts that autonomous cars will have their own lanes on motorways and will, under certain conditions, be able to ‘communicate’ with the road to identify obstacles, travel delays and even potholes. 

Kia Motors, a South Korean car manufacturer commissioned the report to mark 25 years in the UK market. Paul Philpott, president and chief executive of Kia Motors UK, said: “Technology in the motoring industry is moving at an incredibly fast pace, and this report is a fascinating look at how the world around our cars will need to adapt in order to keep up.

“Kia, like other brands is already working towards a greener, more connected and increasingly technologically driven personal mobility reality and commissioning a study such as this allows us to prepare for that future – whatever form it may take. Having this study available to us allows us to integrate one possible future into our existing thinking. Kia has already exhibited its ‘Drive Wise’ sub-brand which allows us to encompass advanced technologies into existing products and facilitate the development of the next generation of vehicles.” 

Key findings

• In the 2040s level four autonomous vehicles will represent approximately 50% of vehicle sales, 30% of vehicles and 40% of all vehicle travel. Only in the 2050s will most vehicles be capable of driverless driving.
• Approximately 8 million intelligent, connected cars will be on UK roads by 2020, up from close to 1.8 million in 2016. Across the world, the figure will reach 160 million vehicles.
• In 2027, new electric cars will outsell conventional combustion engined vehicles. Electric cars could account for over a third of the new cars sold globally by 2041. So many electric cars could be on the road they could represent a quarter of the all the world’s vehicles.
• By 2022, lower costs and financial incentives could make electric cars cheaper to own and operate than traditional petrol/diesel powered cars.
• By 2041, things could look very different, with battery-electric cars capable of driving up to 500 miles on a single charge and taking a 75% charge in as little as 15 minutes.
• There could be 1.6 million hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) on Britain’s roads by 2030 with annual sales of more than 300,000, according to UKH2Mobility, a partnership of UK industry leaders and government. It envisages a co-ordinated network of hydrogen refuelling stations that will grow in line with the number of FCEVs on the road. There could be 1,150 sites by 2030.
• According to the latest Department for Transport (DfT) projections, the number of cars on Britain’s roads will increase from 28 million in 2010 to 38 million by 2041. Assuming the rise is steady, delays will increase by 114% while average road speeds will fall by eight per cent. This would mean that at peak times 15%  of cars on major roads would be stuck in a traffic jam.
• The DfT projections show that car journeys are forecast to increase from an average of 453.4 journeys per person in 2015 to 503.9 by 2040 and that the number of commuters who travel to work by car will increase over the next 25 years as fewer journeys are made by foot, bicycle, bus and train.
• By 2041 almost a quarter of all travel time could be spent stuck in traffic. This amounts to at least: 70 hours for every household stuck in traffic each year; 100 million working days lost each year; £14 billion cost to the freight industry reflected in higher consumer prices; and the impact on reliability may increase some costs by up to 50%.
• Drivers of autonomous cars levels one to three will still require driving licences in 2041.