Edinburgh tram system extension will cost £165m

The outline business case for extending the Edinburgh tram system has been published by City of Edinburgh Council. If approved, Leith and Newhaven and Newhaven will be added to the network.

The capital cost of the project is estimated to be £165.2m, including risk and inflation through to project completion.

The overall construction programme is estimated to be approximately three years plus four months for testing and commissioning. The line is projected to be open to passengers in the second quarter of 2022.

The project has a positive economic impact on the city with every £1 spent providing a return of £1.64.

The outline business case (OBC) sets out the findings and recommendations resulting from a 20-month programme assessment of the costs, benefits, impact and the likely timescales of completing the remaining 2.85 miles (4.6km) of tramline 1A.

The OBC states: “There are potentially significant wider benefits associated with continuing the tram line into North Edinburgh and supporting the overall level of economic growth of the city through enhancing the viability and attractiveness of major housing and employment sites identified in the local development plan. The tram can help support economic activity (jobs, development, and housing) at a greater level than would otherwise be the case.”

Patronage is forecast to double in opening year to over 13m passenger journeys.

The OBC says that, in the short to medium-term, an estimated additional funding gap of £1m will exist after utilising £20m of assumed extraordinary dividend from Lothian Buses. In the longer term, the OC sates hat tram revenues could fund the extension and provide additional income to the city council.

Based on lessons learned building the first phase of the city’s tram system, the OBC concludes says that traffic management will need to be deployed that facilitates opening large sections of the work site at any one time. “This will involve closing three lanes of Leith Walk for approximately 18 months and diverting south bound traffic via Easter Road and Bonnington Road,” the OBC states. “Sections of road between Constitution Street and Tower Street will also need to be closed to traffic during construction.

“A compensation and support scheme for businesses along the route will be put in place and dedicated pedestrian crossing points will be installed every 150 to 200 metres to provide access to both sides of Leith Walk.”

Prior to implementing any traffic management, the OBC says that all proposals will be fully modelled in consultation with Lothian Buses, the emergency services, businesses, residents and elected members.

The OBC has been available for councillors to scrutinise in a specially set up Data Room at the City Chambers. City council officers and an independent advisor on hand to provide further information or clarify points.

A report accompanying the OBC will now be considered at a special meeting of the Transport and Environment Committee on 4 September, before going to Full Council on 21 September.

The report seeks authority to commence a procurement exercise to identify a potential contractor for the project, with a final decision on whether to go ahead with taking the tram to Newhaven, and with which contractor, to follow in autumn 2018.

Council leader Adam McVey said: “Edinburgh is growing faster than any other city in Scotland and our current road network and public transport provision simply aren’t sustainable given the number of new residents we’re expecting to welcome here over the next two decades.

“Rather than exacerbating traffic problems on our already congested roads, trams allow far greater numbers of people to travel, while creating employment during construction, boosting development along the route and connecting people to centres of employment, leisure and retail.”

Transport convener Lesley Macinnes added: “Given the experience of the last tram project, we’re acutely aware of the need to scrutinise this business case as rigorously as we possibly can – residents deserve nothing less. We won’t take any decision on completing the line to Newhaven until we are 100% confident that the project can be delivered, financed and managed effectively.

“Councillors from all parties have been taking up the opportunity to fully examine the business case over the past weeks and will use this special meeting of the Transport and Environment Committee to quiz officers further on the detail and make a recommendation on whether to progress to the next stage.”

Key points included in OBC

Costs & benefits

• Capital Cost estimated at £165.2m, including risk and inflation
• Patronage forecast to almost double in opening year to 14m, reflecting high population densities along the route
• For every £1 spent the economic return to the city is £1.64
• OBC includes wider economic benefits, including social inclusion, and completing the line will provide access to jobs and support business and opportunities in the area

Rapid population and economic growth

• Over the next decade, Edinburgh and surrounding area are expected to be home to faster growing population than anywhere else in Scotland. National Records of Scotland projections published in 2016 suggest city should be planning for an additional 47,000 people by 2024 and additional 102,000 by 2039 (20% increase)
• The number of households forecast to increase by over 38,000 (16%) by 2032. A quarter (25%) of this growth is forecast to occur in Leith Docks and Western Harbour area
• Employment levels in Edinburgh are projected to grow by 7.6% between 2013 and 2022

Construction work to take three years

• Estimated three-year construction period, including 18 months on Leith Walk, followed by approximately four months of testing and commissioning on new line.
• Significant proportion of major utility works have already been carried out – remainder carried out in conjunction with main infrastructure works, meaning no ‘double dig’

Carefully planned traffic management

• Diversions, road closures, access and crossing points thoroughly planned and modelled
• All key stakeholders, including residents, businesses, emergency services and Lothian Buses will be consulted on the traffic proposals set out in the OBC

Support for businesses

• Customer and service access to local businesses maintained at all times
• Compensation and support scheme for affected businesses along the route put in place
• Logistic centres and dedicated crossing points provided at 150-200m centres on Leith Walk
• Logistics officers deployed throughout the day to help businesses with deliveries

Lessons learned

• OBC recommends industry-standard contract with rigorous project governance
• Traffic management would give contractor expanded sites and provide flexibility if problems encountered
• Project would benefit from industry networking with other cities (Manchester, Birmingham, Dublin) to ensure best practice
• Consultation with the market and incorporating input from Tram Inquiry