Commission plots new path for travel demand forecasting

Fundamental changes to how we forecast future travel demand are needed to address uncertainty, says a new report by the Commission on Travel Demand. Andrew Forster summarises its findings

Andrew Forster

11 May 2018

Commission chair Greg Marsden

The Commission welcomes the DfT’s use of scenarios in the most recent National Road Traffic Forecasts. A new version of the forecasts, due for release imminently, is expected to take this approach forward.

Transport policy and planning approaches the question of future travel demand in too rigid a way, failing to reflect recent trends or the huge uncertainties surrounding forecasting, according to the Commission on Travel Demand.

The Commission has just completed a 12-month inquiry into future travel demand and its implications for policy and planning. The final report was launched at an event in London last week sponsored by consultant Jacobs. It makes ten recommendations (see panel for an...