As models become ever larger and more complex the need to deal with the uncertainty inherent in trying to predict the future is becoming ever more important, says Tom van Vuren, a divisional director at consultant Mott MacDonald and a visiting professor at the Institute for Transport Studies at the University of Leeds. “As a profession we are not very good at recognising the uncertainties in our model inputs, in the processes within our models and ultimately in our results,” van...
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