Britain’s future transport pressures will be shaped by where we build new homes

David Metz, University College London

10 December 2010

David Metz is a visiting professor at the Centre for Transport Studies, University College London and was formerly chief scientist at the Department for Transport.

In a time of financial stringency, we need to understand where travel demand will develop in the coming years if we are to make sensible decisions about transport investment. A key insight is that demographic change is the main driver of future demand.

In the past, growth of personal incomes was most important in determining travel behaviour. For the best part of two centuries, rising incomes and the development of a succession of new transport technologies enabled us to travel faster and hence...