Drawing up a new road map

With the share of journeys by car falling in big cities, will the LSTF’s legacy see the same happen in smaller urban centres, wonders David Metz

David Metz is visiting professor at the Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, and author of ‘Peak Car: the Future of Travel’, published by Landor Links, 2014. He will be speaking at Smarter Travel

David Metz is visiting professor at the Centre for Transport Studies, University College London, and author of ‘Peak Car: the Future of Travel’, published by Landor Links, 2014. He will be speaking at Smarter Travel

For the measures supported by the Local Sustainable Transport Fund (LSTF) to have lasting impact, they need to be set in a strategic context. Smarter Travel initiatives must run with the grain of local policy. The central question is: What kind of a place do we want to be? What are the options?

One possibility is the ‘big city’ model. A successful city has two characteristics; its population is growing – people are attracted by success to live, work or study – and the population density increases. Because the road system cannot cope with more car traffic, a successful city invests in rail to meet the needs of its people for work journeys. Trips to and from work are the biggest opportunity for getting people out of their cars since occupancy is mostly single and vehicles are generally parked all day.

London exemplifies this model. Its population is growing rapidly. Car use, however, has not increased over the past 20 years, whether measured by car traffic or car trips. This means that the share of journeys by car has fallen from 50% in 1993 to 37% in 2013, with a further decline to under 30% as the population reaches 11 million by mid-century. The key policies have been the decisions made in the 1970s not to adapt the city for the car by building elevated roads, so that road capacity constraints have prevented growth of car use. Those constraints have been reinforced by parking charges and prohibitions and, crucially, substantial investment in rail in all its forms.

Business people, professionals, white collar workers can all be enticed out of their cars for work journeys because rail travel is faster and more reliable than the car on congested roads. For instance, 100,000 well-paid people are employed at Canary Wharf, the new financial centre in London’s former Docklands, where there are only 3,000 parking places. There is little car traffic since most people get there by rail. In contrast, cities that rely on buses for public transport tend to have congested roads since the crowded bus is no faster than the comfortable car.

Car use, as a share of all journeys, peaked in London around 1990. Evidently, declining car use is not incompatible with a city that is thriving economically, culturally and socially. Indeed, pushing back the car may well have contributed to the interactions between people that are important for success – the agglomeration benefits recognised by economists. The ‘Peak Car’ phenomenon is not confined to London. There is evidence of a similar peaking in other cities, including Manchester and Birmingham. 

By contrast, the choices for smaller cities or larger towns tend to be limited. Public transport will generally not be brilliant, on account of the economics of buses at typical population densities and the cost of investing in rail. There will be a high level of car dependence, which generates an imperative to accommodate the car – if not, there is a risk that car users will take their trade elsewhere. Yet people want to live in places with character, in healthy and pleasant surroundings, with good public facilities to hand. Urban planning, in which better transport is important but not the sole objective, can help achieve these objectives.

Regrettably, there are few convincing exemplars of successful smaller cities and larger towns that are achieving a declining share of trips by car while meeting the needs of a growing population for jobs and homes. Partly this is the lack of statistics, but it is partly also due to uncertainty about the scope for reducing car use in these circumstances. Evaluation of the outcome of the LSTF projects is awaited with great interest.

David Metz is Speaking at Smarter Travel 2015