DfT embraces scenario-based road traffic forecasts for uncertain world

The DfT has taken a new approach to road traffic forecasting, testing a wider range of possible future scenarios. Andrew Forster summarises the approach and its findings

20 March 2015

The highest growth is forecast to be on Highway Englands’s strategic road network

Figure 1: Total car ownership, England 2010 - 2040 (millions of cars)

Figure 2: Traffic growth by scenario (bn miles, all vehicles)

Road traffic volumes in England are forecast to grow by between 19 and 55% between 2010 and 2040, according to the DfT’s new national road traffic forecasts. Their release comes amid continuing criticism from within the ranks of the transport planning profession that previous forecasts of significant growth have been at odds with recent data showing a largely flat trend over the last decade. Particular criticism has been aimed at the Department’s forecasts for London where the...