Making transport modelling fitter for tomorrow, again

The future is no longer similar to the past and transport modelling must adapt to uncertainty and disruption, says Luis Willumsen. Here he presents some ideas for an ‘Operating System’ update

Luis Willumsen

17 February 2017

What will this scene look like in 20 years?

Luis Willumsen is director at Kineo Mobility Analytics & Willumsen Advisory Services.

If the financial crisis of 2007/2008 did not manage to persuade us all that the future is uncertain and unforecastable with any degree of confidence, then 2016 should have done so. From Brexit to Trump, autonomous vehicles to virtual reality, the world seems to be less understandable and predictable than five years ago. What does this mean for the practice of transport modelling and decision-making? I will adopt a public sector planning perspective to answering the question; forecasting for...