Lack of professional consensus on input assumptions will hinder net zero aims

Modellers will only be able to shape transport decarbonisation policy if they become transparent and collaborative, says David Metz

The DfT’s Transport Decarbonisation Plan (TDP) projects the decline of domestic transport greenhouse gas emissions from the present 120 MtCO2e a year to approaching zero by 2050. There is considerable initial uncertainty about the pathway but the range of projected outcomes narrows over time as the proportion of zero emission vehicles increases. The modelling is largely based on the DfT’s long-established National Transport Model. Although little detail is provided, there are...

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