Are transport specialists practising self-deception?

One of the topics explored at the Local Transport Summit was how the expectations of ‘transport professionals’ in planning for the future compare with those of other members of society, and in particular those without a ‘transport way of thinking’. LTT is taking that discussion forward with a series of contributions. To begin, Steve Melia asks if the ‘transport experts’ are thinking consistently and logically themselves

What do transport specialists believe is likely to happen between now and 2035? That was the headline question I set out to answer a few weeks ago. My interest was partly raised by the discussion about “superforecasting” at the last Modelling World conference which was reported in the last issue of LTT. But learning their considered specific opinions was not my only reason for asking.

I wanted to explore some influences on their thought processes too.

Between 1984 and 2003 a team of...

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