A forecast often has the intended implication ‘this is what we think will happen’ and a scenario is ‘this is what we think could happen’. The really important reasons for using scenarios are when there is a significant degree of uncertainty or disagreement about the future, or when an official forecast lacks credibility or consensus, or when the future path of policy itself is undetermined, or when ‘thinking outside the box’ is essential because a described...
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Phil Goodwin
Phil Goodwin
Phil Goodwin is professor of transport policy at the Centre for Transport and Society, University of West of England, Bristol, and emeritus professor at University College London. Email: philinelh@yahoo.com