Monthly journal Parking Review has been the definitive source of news and intelligence on the UK and international public and private parking sectors since 1989.

Forget complexity, models should be simple

In the last issue we covered a new report by Yaron Hollander, a former Transport for London modelling manager, looking at ten misuses of transport models. This is one of a selection of responses from within the modelling community

David Orrell, www.postpythagorean.com
27 November 2015
© David Orrell [homepage www.postpythagorean.com] is an applied mathematician and author. His next book The Evolution of Money will be published by Columbia University Press in 2016.
© David Orrell [homepage www.postpythagorean.com] is an applied mathematician and author. His next book The Evolution of Money will be published by Columbia University Press in 2016.

 

The report by Yaron Hollander accurately identifies a number of different types of ‘model abuse’ in transport forecasting. I would just add a couple of comments. One is that these problems are not unique to transport, but are common in many other areas of forecasting as well, as I found while researching my 2007 book The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction. This is especially the case when the incentives of the forecasters are entwined with the outcome of the...

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